Container lines have been accused of restricting capacity to hold rates firm, but analysis shows that deployed capacity rose rather than fell despite blanked sailings.
A large transfer of volumes from the first half of 2020 into the second half of the year is a substantial element of the current crisis in container shipping rather than any carrier-imposed restrictions on capacity.
Data from Sea-Intelligence shows that after a spate of blankings in the first half of last year, there has since been a net growth in deployed capacity.
While there had been blanked sailings during the second-half of the year, as rates began their steady rise to record-breaking levels, lines had “more than compensated” for the blankings with the injection of additional capacity, resulting in a net growth of offered capacity, Sea-Intelligence said.
The additional capacity had been achieved through the use of extra loaders on some trade lanes and the phasing-in of ever-larger tonnage.
“When combining these facts, there is no basis for saying that because the carriers are blanking sailings, then the spot rates are going up,” it said. “The starting point has to be that the carriers have substantially increased the total capacity in the markets.”
This remained true despite an increase in blanked sailings towards the end of 2020.
“Since July, the amount of capacity brought in through larger vessels and extra loaders have more than exceeded the amount of capacity removed through blank sailings,” said Sea-Intelligence. “There have been periods where the growth in capacity injection was pushing 30%, despite some sailings being cancelled.”
Blankings that had taken place recently had been driven by considerations other than artificially holding up freight rates, it added.
Delays at a number of ports, particularly on the US west coast, along with disruptions caused by positive coronavirus tests among crew, had delayed vessels to the extent that scheduled sailings had to be cancelled.
Additionally, a lack of demand on one particular port pairing may have facilitated taking a vessel off a voyage to be redeployed elsewhere where there was high demand.
“Overall, the data does not support the notion that the blank sailings are being used by carriers to drive the current spike in spot rates,” Sea-Intelligence said. “Hence the notion that the current problems are partly due to blank sailings, is myth.”
What had not changed, however, was the total number of containers shifted during the year.
But a “dramatic deviation” from normal seasonality had thrown the entire supply chain into disarray, Sea-Intelligence said.
The seasonal decline following Chinese New Year is usually around 2.4m teu, but last year fell by 3.2m teu.
“Under normal circumstances we then see volumes gradually fill up following the slump, but in 2020 this dropped further to below 6m teu when compared to the straight average and 5 m teu when adjusted for seasonality,” the analyst said.
Peak season recovery doubled in 2020, with more than 1m teu of additional demand being added each month.
“As it is impossible to rapidly increase capacity beyond a certain point, this creates significant problems in the supply chain,” it said. “Total annual volume in 2020 is essentially at the same level as 2019.
“But it is split in such a way that 5m additional teu is shifted to the later part of the year, and compared to the annual average, we are seeing a spike above 6m teu being shifted.”
Source: Lloyd´s
