The National Retail Federation and Hackett Associates project record volumes for each of the first six months of the year, while the first half of 2021 as a whole is forecast at up 22.1% over the same period in 2020.
US containerised imports are expected to set new monthly records from now into the summer as the country’s economy continues to recover from the pandemic, according to retail experts.
Indeed, the National Retail Federation and Hackett Associates project record volumes for each of the first six months of the year, January through June, while the first half of 2021 as a whole is forecast at 11.5m teu, up 22.1% from the same period in 2020.
“The import numbers we’re seeing reflect retailers’ expectations for consumer demand to the point that many factories in Asia that normally close for Chinese New Year this month are remaining open to keep up,” NRF vice president for supply chain and customs policy Jon Gold said.
“Regardless of whether it’s in-store or on retailers’ websites, the record holiday season and numbers for 2020 show consumers are buying again and have been for a while. This surge has been going on for months, and retailers are importing merchandise faster than ever,” Mr Gold said.
Hackett Associates Founder Ben Hackett said: “As we continue to struggle with Covid-19 and the ups and downs in the economy, year-over-year increases in the flow of containerised goods have become dramatic.”
He added: “It is impressive that the cargo volumes handled by the ports remain as high as they are despite congestion at the docks and the spread of the coronavirus among workers throughout the supply chain.”
The monthly Global Port Tracker, produced for the NRF by Hackett Associates, projects January at 2.08m teu, up 14.6% over January 2020 and the busiest January since the NRF began tracking imports in 2002, topping 1.89m teu in January 2019.
February is historically the slowest month of the year for imports, both because of the lull between the holiday season and spring and because factories in Asia close for the Chinese New Year holiday.
But this February is forecast at 1.91m teu, up 26.3% year on year, with 25-30 containerships waiting to berth at the ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach and with many Asian factories remaining open during the holiday to meet demand.
March is forecast at 1.93m teu, up an “unprecedented” 41% from March 2020, while April is forecast at 1.82m teu, up 13.3% year on year; May at 1.9m teu, up 23.8%, and June also at 1.9m teu, up 18.2%.
Looking back at 2020, Global Port Tracker said US ports it covers handled 2.11m teu in December, up 0.2% from November and 22.3% year over year.
That figure brought 2020 to a total of 22m teu, up 1.9% from 2019’s 21.6m teu and beating the previous record of 21.8m teu recorded in 2018.
Retail sales during the November-December holiday season in 2020& hit a record $789.4bn, up 8.3% from 2019, and preliminary figures show retail sales for all of 2020 were up 6.8% year-over-year.
Global Port Tracker provides historical data and forecasts for the west coast ports of Los Angeles/Long Beach, Oakland, Seattle and Tacoma.
It covers the east coast ports of New York/New Jersey, Port of Virginia, Charleston, Savannah, Port Everglades, Miami and Jacksonville. It also includes Houston on the Gulf coast.
Source: Lloyd´s
