Blank sailings and pre-tariff advance orders both support lines’ plans for GRIs of US$300-$400, according to digital rates specialist Freightos.
Transpacific ocean freight rates look set for a big 1 July rise, with blank sailings by container lines and pre-tariff advance orders both supporting lines’ plans for general rate increases (GRIs) of US$300-$400, according to digital rates specialist Freightos.
According to the latest Freightos Baltic Index (FBX) container freight price update, as of Tuesday 25 June, China-US West Coast prices (FBX01 Daily) stayed stable over the last week at $1,387/FEU. “With early June’s rate increase still in effect, carriers blanking sailings for next month and demand boosted by advance shipping, a $300-$400 July 1 price increase looks likely,” Freightos said.
China-US East Coast prices (FBX02 Daily) are stable at $2,636/FEU. “With essentially the same supply and demand conditions as for the West Coast, expect a significant price increase on July 1,” Freightos indicated.
Meanwhile, China-Europe prices (FBX11 Daily) at $1,289/FEU have stayed stable as well but are 16% down on 2018 and 37% down on 2017, Freightos highlighted, noting: “Bearing the brunt of the 18,000+ TEU mega-vessel rollout, supply continues to outstrip demand, at least until APL withdraws after peak season. Despite this, carriers are trying to increase prices to cash in on the bottleneck preceding Europe’s pre-August shutdown.”
Eytan Buchman, CMO at Freightos, commented: “All signs are pointing to a big transpacific GRI coming up next week. Blank sailings and advance orders due to trade tariff threats both support an increase.
“Early July is when peak season surcharges are typically introduced. Transpacific prices increased 40% at this time last year; a similar increase would see 40’ containers just south of $2,000.”
He continued: “We’re still a week out, but carriers are already notifying forwarders of price increases in the $300-$400 range or higher. Should presidents Trump and Xi reach an accord at this weekend’s G20 Summit, the prospective trade tariff might be off again. Carriers, though, will hope the uncertainty keeping prices up continues until peak season.”
Source: Lloyd’s
