Leaked UK government dossier predicts three months of chaos, including lorries using main channel crossings facing two-day queues, rising prices, plus fuel, food and medicine shortages.
Freight and logistics representatives have responded with alarm to new leaked UK government documents that paint a bleak picture on the impact of a no-deal Brexit on the UK and the logistics sector, including long lorry queues and fuel and food shortages.
The official forecasts by the Cabinet Office, compiled this month and reported yesterday by the Sunday Times, predict that if the UK leaves the European Union without a withdrawal agreement and transition deal, the most likely scenario is severe extended delays to medicine supplies and shortages of some fresh foods and possible fuel shortages, combined with price rises, if there is a no-deal Brexit on 31 October.
The Guardian reports that the UK will face a three-month meltdown at its ports, and a ‘hard’ Irish border, according to government documents on Operation Yellowhammer. The dossier says up to 85% of lorries using the main channel crossings “may not be ready” for French customs and could face queues of two and a half days, the Sunday Times reports.
Medical supplies will be “vulnerable to severe extended delays” as three-quarters of the UK’s medicines enter the country via the main Channel crossings, and the availability of fresh food will be reduced and prices will rise, which could hit “vulnerable groups”.
The government also believes a hard border between the British province of Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland, an EU member, will be likely as plans to avoid widespread checks will prove unsustainable, according to reports by the Sunday Times, the Times, and Reuters – and a “three-month meltdown” at ports unable to cope with extra checks.
Protests could break out across the UK, requiring significant police intervention, and two oil refineries could close, with thousands of job losses, according to the documents.
Those campaigning against a no-deal Brexit said the official Cabinet Office document confirmed all the warnings about the risks of crashing out without an agreement, while business groups also expressed concern.
James Hookham, Deputy Chief Executive of the Freight Transport Association (FTA), said: “FTA, which speaks for the logistics sector, is concerned that none of the planned scenarios leaked in this weekend’s report (Sunday Times) have been shared with the logistics industry in meetings over the past three years. We are ready and waiting to adopt and adapt to new trading practices, but without knowing the scenarios the government believes industry should prepare for, logistics operators cannot be expected to take adequate steps to get ready for a No Deal Brexit.
“This is the first time the industry is learning of any threat to fuel supplies – a particularly worrying situation as this would affect the movement of goods across the country, not just to and from Europe, and could put jobs at risk throughout the sector which keeps Britain trading.”
Although some UK government sources claimed that these reports were out of date and were worst-case scenarios, asenior Whitehall source told the Sunday Times: “This is not Project Fear; this is the most realistic assessment of what the public face with no deal. These are likely, basic, reasonable scenarios – not the worst case.”
Source: Lloyd’s
