WorldACD figures for first eight months of 2019 show worldwide volumes down almost 5% and yields by 7.1% for general cargo and by 3.8% for special cargo categories.
Global air freight experienced another steep fall in August, quashing any hopes that a slowing of the decline in July was a sign of this year’s downturn bottoming out.
According to figures and analysis published today by WorldACD, global air freight tonnages carried, expressed as total chargeable weight, fell 7.1% in August, year-over-year (YoY) and by 2.6%, month-over-month (MoM). Within this, general cargo traffic levels fell by 10.3%, YoY, while special cargo once again held firm, rising by 0.7%, YoY.
WorldACD noted: “If hopes went up after July, in which the air cargo performance was less bad than in the months before, August brought the industry back to earth: a YoY weight loss of 7.1% worldwide was accompanied by a yield decrease (in US dollars) of 9.4%.
“The resulting worldwide revenue drop (measured in US dollars) of almost 16% is not exactly the performance airlines were waiting for. The various regions of the world contributed in roughly the same measure to the decline; exceptions were Africa (volume +1.6%, YoY) and – at the other end of the spectrum, the Middle East and South Asia (-10.4%, YoY).”
Average air freight prices per kilogramme flown in August stood at US$1.71 (-9.4% YoY, -2.1% MoM), while the average cargo load factor dropped by 4 percentage-points, YoY, and by 0.4 percentage-points, MoM.
Looking at types of cargo, ‘High-Tech & Other Vulnerable Goods’ increased by 4.4%, YoY, while ‘Pharma & Temperature Controlled Goods’ rose by 5.2% YoY. Perishables in total grew 1.3%, YoY. Of this category, ‘fish & seafood’ did best (+5.4%, YoY) and meat did worst (-8.0%).
For the eight months from January to August 2019, worldwide air cargo volumes were down by almost 5% and yields (in US dollars) by 7.1% for general cargo, and by 3.8% for special cargo categories. Flowers were the only category with a slight yield improvement, of 1%, WorldACD noted.
In terms of overall revenues, the origins Europe and Asia Pacific have been hardest hit in the year so far, with decreases of 15.3% and 11.6%, respectively, in US dollars, or 9.9% and 6.1% respectively, in euros.
WorldACD highlighted that Asia Pacific was “the main regional victim” when looking at destinations, particularly within intra-Asia and on flows from the US to China and Hong Kong. But as an origin region, “China is doing well”, WorldACD said, noting that to destinations outside the Asia Pacific region, “exports even grew, by 0.2%”.
WorldACD noted that various news reports have indicated that China’s neighbours are profiting from the trade war between China and the US, but said that “for air cargo, it is not easy to either corroborate or refute such statements”, because of multiple possible factors at play – including “other geopolitical developments and the consequences of a more general wait-and-see attitude”.
But it noted “that China’s neighbours show an interesting mix of results”, adding: “We compared the most recent three-month period (June-August 2019) with the same period in 2018. In air cargo exports to the USA, China lost 18% of its revenues (in USD), whilst the other origins in Asia Pacific combined lost 16%.
“Among the major Asia Pacific countries, Japan and Hong Kong and South Korea each lost around 25%, but Vietnam and Taiwan gained 4% and 15% respectively.
“In the other direction, i.e. from the USA to Asia Pacific, we noted the following: China -18.5%, Hong Kong -20%, South Korea -24%, Japan -7%, Taiwan -10.5%, but Vietnam +9.5%.”
It continued: “In other words, whatever the reasons, Vietnam is clearly improving its position in air cargo flows to and from the USA, and to a somewhat lesser extent, so is Taiwan. But the countries in North-East Asia do not make the impression that they benefit from the trade war.
“And the airlines? When looking strictly at the USD-revenues made from air cargo flows between China and the USA, North American carriers suffered more than Asian carriers (-26% vs -17%), but carriers originating outside the USA or Asia lost ‘only’ 12%.”
Source: Lloyd’s
