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Home | Internacional | Transpacific ocean rates remain ‘at mercy of trade tariff war’
Postado em 26 de setembro de 2019 | 18:59

Transpacific ocean rates remain ‘at mercy of trade tariff war’

But post-Golden Week increases and strong, late peak could shore up prices, says leading digital rates specialist.

Transpacific ocean rates remain at the mercy of the trade tariff war between the US and China but post-Golden Week increases and a strong, late peak could lead to a shoring up of prices, says a leading digital rates specialist.

According to the latest Freightos Baltic Index (FBX) 40′ container core price update, China-US West Coast prices (FBX01 Daily) have fallen 8% from last week and are currently at $1,327/feu.

The company noted that “since the beginning of the year, container rates have dropped a full 34%, despite it being the middle of peak season. Compared to last year’s relatively high rates, this represents a 43% drop (but a more measured 14% drop from 2017).

“Demand this year collapsed in August following a previous trade tariff change, but September prices had initially rallied. With this latest decline, they are are just 3% up from the end of August.”

China-US East Coast prices (FBX02 Daily) currently stand at $2,681/FEU, holding steady from last week and still just above prices at the end of August. Although they are 24% down on last year, they are 20% up on 2017’s prices.

“Transpacific pricing remains at the mercy of the trade tariff war. The most recent change, a five point increase to goods taxed at 25% on October 1, carried less clout than predecessors due to the short, five week notice and the limited scope of goods affected,” Eytan Buchman, CMO at Freightos, commented.

“Given the weak peak season prices, carriers will be banking on post-Golden Week increases, as well as the December 15 tariff change, to shore up prices. With a significantly longer four month notice, there’s a better chance that this tariff increase will lead to increased shipping – and freight rates – come October and November,” he added.

According to Drewry’s latest World Container Index (WCI), published today (September 26) covering eight major East-West trades, rates for a 40ft box from Shanghai to New York were up 6% compared to last week to $2,574/feu while rates from Shanghai to Los Angeles increased by 1% to $1,404/feu.

The rates show a fall of 28% and 41% respectively year on year (YoY).

Rates from Shanghai to Rotterdam declined by 4% over last week to US$1,247/ feu and are down 8%  YoY. On the Shanghai-Genoa route, rates were down 4%  to $1,395/feu and are 7% lower than 12  months ago.

Meanwhile, Transatlantic rates were hovering around the previous week’s rate.

Drewry said no upturn in rates is in sight for the next week on account of the Chinese factory shutdown with the Golden Week holiday.

The WCI’s composite index decreased by 1%  on the previous week to $1,262/feu and was down 27% when compared with same period of 2018.

The average composite index of the WCI,  for year-to-date, is US $1437 per 40ft container, which is $20 higher than the five-year average of $1,416/feu.

 

Source: Lloyd’s


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