Average worldwide yields dropped slightly to US$1.88 in July 2018, 0.6% lower than in June, but still significantly higher than in July 2017, reports WorldACD.
Average global air freight prices remain up 12%, year on year, in US dollar terms, despite a slowing of growth in the last few months and a month-on-month drop in freight rates in July, according to analyst WorldACD.
Worldwide air cargo yields dropped slightly to US$1.88 in July 2018, 0.6% lower than in June, but still 12.2% higher than in July 2017. Measured in Euros, the yield decreased by 2.2% month-over-month (MoM), whilst the year-over-year (YoY) increase was 10.5%.
On a lane-by-lane basis, sample origin and destination pairs tracked by WorldACD show MoM increases in July for Mumbai to theUK (+5.2%) and Hong Kong to the USA (+1.8%), but decreases for Shanghai to Germany (-2.1%), Amsterdam to USA (-1.6%), and Frankfurt to China (-3.6%).
Looking at demand, WorldACD said: “Minimal worldwide YoY growth is what the month of July 2018 had in store for the air cargo world − the second month in a row with only limited YoY growth, both in volume (+0.5%) and in direct tonne kilometres (+0.8%).”
When DTKs grow more than volume, that means that cargo has shifted to longer haul markets, WorldACD, said, explaining that “the tiny difference of 0.3 percentage points” meant that the average distance between origin and final destination of air cargo shipments in July hardly increased, YoY. “Actually, the DTK-trend since January 2018 shows that the average distance between origin and destination still grows, but much less so this year than in previous years,” it added.
WorldACD noted that, although very difficult to quantify, the technical problems that Japanese carrier NCA has faced over the summer, which led to the temporary grounding of the airline’s entire freighter fleet, have most likely negatively influenced YoY growth figures for June and July.
On a regional basis, volumes from the origins Africa (-8.3%) and Europe (-1.3%) contracted, YoY, in July. Latin America kept growing (+9.5%), while volumes from other areas hardly changed.
Meanwhile, the destination regions MESA and Europe were the only ones showing more than 1% YoY growth in July. For the year so far, Latin America is the fastest growing origin region (+11.6%) and Europe the fastest growing destination (+5.6%), WorldACD said.
Volume growth for the first seven months of 2018 was 3.3%, YoY, while DTK growth for the year so far fell to 4.1% YoY.
In the same period, the weight of the average shipment increased by 1.9%, YoY. Looking at the so-called ‘weight breaks’ (0-50 kg, 50-300 kg, 300-500 kg, etc.), the number of shipments above 1,000 kg grew much faster YoY (+4.8%) than the number of shipments in the smaller weight breaks, with growth varying between -0.9% and +2%.
WorldACD suggested that this stronger growth of shipments above 1,000 kg − particularly from Asia Pacific – could be caused by an increase in consolidated e-commerce shipments.
The analyst also noted that the YoY growth for the US$-yield “was higher the further up you go in weight breaks: the smaller the weight, the smaller the yield growth percentage”. Shipments over 1,000 kgs saw larger yield increases (+17% YoY) than smaller shipments (growth increasing from 9% for 0-50 kg to 14% for 500-1000kg).
“The YoY increase in fuel prices may well play a role here, as the increase in absolute fuel cost, when factored in as a percentage of total yield change, weighs more heavily on the (lower-yielding) larger shipments,” WorldACD said.